Home > Politics > On the 2012 Election: Prediction Time

On the 2012 Election: Prediction Time

With elections coming tomorrow, I think it’s time for me to put my predictions down in writing for all of cyberspace to consume. I’ll get right down to it:

Electoral College: Obama – 294; Romney – 244

I come to this result by giving Obama Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania (if you want to call that a swing state). Romney then gets Florida and Colorado. Basically, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado are the ones I view as the truest toss-ups, so I sent Romney two and Obama two. I gave Romney the biggest and third-biggest of the four because a) he has a good shot at Florida, and b) I wanted to make up for possibly overestimating Obama’s chances elsewhere.

Popular Vote: Obama 49.4%; Romney 48.2%

This is pretty much a guess. I know that it will be close. And I suspect the third-party candidates (especially Gary Johnson) will pull a hair over one percent.

Senate: 51 Democrats, 2 Independents, 47 Republicans

The Senate has 37 Republicans and 30 Democrats holding their seats (not up for re-election). The other 33 races will determine the balance of power. The Independents are both safe and Sanders will caucus with Democrats, while King has been non-committal on his caucusing preferences, but he is popular with Democrats. State-by-state, here are my picks.

Arizona: Flake (R)

California: Feinstein (D)

Connecticut: Murphy (D)

Delaware: Carper (D)

Florida: Nelson (D)

Hawaii: Hirono (D)

Indiana: Donnelly (D) (Thanks to Mourdock’s rape comments)

Maine: King (I) (Yay!)

Maryland: Cardin (D) (And I think Sobhani (I) will be second)

Massachusetts: Warren (D)

Michigan: Stabenow (D)

Minnesota: Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi: Wicker (R)

Missouri: McCaskill (D) (Thanks to Todd Akin’s rape comments)

Montana: Rehberg (R) (Much to my chagrin; I heard their debate recently)

Nebraska: Fischer (R)

Nevada: Heller (R)

New Jersey: Menendez (D)

New Mexico: Heinrich (D)

New York: Gillibrand (D)

North Dakota: Berg (R)

Ohio: Brown (D)

Pennsylvania: Casey (D)

Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D)

Tennessee: Corker (R)

Texas: Cruz (R)

Utah: Hatch (R)

Vermont: Sanders (I)

Virginia: Kaine (D) (toughest call to make for me)

Washington: Cantwell (D)

West Virginia: Manchin (D)

Wisconsin: Baldwin (D) (another toss-up)

Wyoming: Barrasso (R)

House: 235 Republicans, 200 Democrats

Another guess. I’m not breaking down 435 elections, but if you couldn’t tell by now, I’m thinking that there’s some breaking toward the Democrats in general as of late, as I’m giving most of the close calls to the left.

I also am a big fan of Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com. My Senate projections are basically to agree with Silver, which is a cop out in a way, but it’s just because I believe it to be the most complete, best information out there. So I’m trusting it.

I hope everyone enjoys election day. And if you’re going to brag about your predictions on Wednesday, please at least put them in writing by early Tuesday. Otherwise, it doesn’t count.

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  1. November 6, 2012 at 10:40 am

    I’m already second-guessing myself on Iowa and Colorado. Those might switch. Yes, this is hedging and cheap. No, I don’t care because my predictions have no impact on the world.

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